MyNixOS website logo
Description

Bayesian BIN (Bias, Information, Noise) Model of Forecasting.

A recently proposed Bayesian BIN model disentangles the underlying processes that enable forecasters and forecasting methods to improve, decomposing forecasting accuracy into three components: bias, partial information, and noise. By describing the differences between two groups of forecasters, the model allows the user to carry out useful inference, such as calculating the posterior probabilities of the treatment reducing bias, diminishing noise, or increasing information. It also provides insight into how much tamping down bias and noise in judgment or enhancing the efficient extraction of valid information from the environment improves forecasting accuracy. This package provides easy access to the BIN model. For further information refer to the paper Ville A. Satopää, Marat Salikhov, Philip E. Tetlock, and Barbara Mellers (2021) "Bias, Information, Noise: The BIN Model of Forecasting" <doi:10.1287/mnsc.2020.3882>.

BINtools

The goal of BINtools is to implement a BIN model, a Bayesian approach to decomposing forecasting accuracy into three components: bias, partial information, and noise.

Installation

You can install the released version of BINtools from CRAN with:

install.packages("BINtools")

Example

This is a basic example which shows you how to solve a common problem:

library(BINtools)
# An example with two forecasting groups
# a) Simulate synthetic data:
synthetic_data = simulate_data(list(mu_star = -0.8,mu_0 = -0.5,mu_1 = 0.2,gamma_0 = 0.1,
gamma_1 = 0.3, rho_0 = 0.05,delta_0 = 0.1, rho_1 = 0.2, delta_1 = 0.3,rho_01 = 0.05), 300,100,100)
# b) Estimate the BIN-model on the synthetic data:
full_bayesian_fit = estimate_BIN(synthetic_data$Outcomes,synthetic_data$Control,synthetic_data$Treatment,warmup = 1000, iter = 2000)
# c) Analyze the results:
complete_summary(full_bayesian_fit)

Metadata

Version

0.2.0

License

Unknown

Platforms (77)

    Darwin
    FreeBSD
    Genode
    GHCJS
    Linux
    MMIXware
    NetBSD
    none
    OpenBSD
    Redox
    Solaris
    WASI
    Windows
Show all
  • aarch64-darwin
  • aarch64-freebsd
  • aarch64-genode
  • aarch64-linux
  • aarch64-netbsd
  • aarch64-none
  • aarch64-windows
  • aarch64_be-none
  • arm-none
  • armv5tel-linux
  • armv6l-linux
  • armv6l-netbsd
  • armv6l-none
  • armv7a-darwin
  • armv7a-linux
  • armv7a-netbsd
  • armv7l-linux
  • armv7l-netbsd
  • avr-none
  • i686-cygwin
  • i686-darwin
  • i686-freebsd
  • i686-genode
  • i686-linux
  • i686-netbsd
  • i686-none
  • i686-openbsd
  • i686-windows
  • javascript-ghcjs
  • loongarch64-linux
  • m68k-linux
  • m68k-netbsd
  • m68k-none
  • microblaze-linux
  • microblaze-none
  • microblazeel-linux
  • microblazeel-none
  • mips-linux
  • mips-none
  • mips64-linux
  • mips64-none
  • mips64el-linux
  • mipsel-linux
  • mipsel-netbsd
  • mmix-mmixware
  • msp430-none
  • or1k-none
  • powerpc-netbsd
  • powerpc-none
  • powerpc64-linux
  • powerpc64le-linux
  • powerpcle-none
  • riscv32-linux
  • riscv32-netbsd
  • riscv32-none
  • riscv64-linux
  • riscv64-netbsd
  • riscv64-none
  • rx-none
  • s390-linux
  • s390-none
  • s390x-linux
  • s390x-none
  • vc4-none
  • wasm32-wasi
  • wasm64-wasi
  • x86_64-cygwin
  • x86_64-darwin
  • x86_64-freebsd
  • x86_64-genode
  • x86_64-linux
  • x86_64-netbsd
  • x86_64-none
  • x86_64-openbsd
  • x86_64-redox
  • x86_64-solaris
  • x86_64-windows